Publications and Presentations

Our team has been busy supporting the challenges of real-time epidemic science, originally pertaining to the pandemic but now so much more.

Publications and Preprints

[161] Active sensing for epidemic state estimation using abm-guided machine learning. Proceedings of the Multi-agent-based Simulation (MABS) Workshop. Saliba S, Dadgostari F, Hoops S, Mortveit HS, Swarup S (2023)

[160] Medium-term scenarios of covid-19 as a function of immune uncertainties and chronic disease. medRxiv. Mar 10. Saad-Roy CM, Morris SE, Baker RE, Farrar J, Graham AL, Levin SA, Wagner CE, Metcalf CJE, Grenfell BM (2023)

[159] Detecting sources of healthcare associated infections. Association for the Advancement of Artificial Intelligence. Jang H, Fu A, Cui J, Kamruzzaman M, Prakash BA, Vullikanti A, Adhikari B, Pemmaraju SV (2023)

[158] Improved bi-point rounding algorithms and a golden barrier for k-median. Proceedings of the 2023 Annual ACM-SIAM Symposium on Discrete Algorithms (SODA). 987–1011. SIAM. Gowda KN, Pensyl T, Srinivasan A, Trinh K (2023)

[157] Data-driven scalable pipeline using national agent-based models for real-time pandemic response and decision support. The International Journal of High Performance Computing Applications. Jan; 37(1):4–27. Bhattacharya P, Chen J, Hoops S, Machi D, Lewis B, Venkatramanan S, Wilson ML, Klahn B, Adiga A, Hurt B, et al. (2023)

[156] Coursing hyenas and stalking lions: the potential for inter-and intraspecific interactions. Plos one. Feb 3; 18(2):e0265054. Barker NA, Joubert FG, Kasaona M, Shatumbu G, Stowbunenko V, Alexander KA, Slotow R, Getz WM (2023) 

[155] Modeling large river basins and flood plains with scarce data: Development of the large basin data portal. Hydrology. Apr 6;10(4):87. Abu-Saymeh R, Godref A, Alexander KA (2023)

[154] Airborne disease transmission during indoor gatherings over multiple time scales: Modeling framework and policy implications. PNAS. April 10; 120(16): e2216948120. Dixit AK, Espinoza B, Qiu Z, Vullikanti A, Marathe MV (2023)

[153] End-to-end stochastic optimization with energy-based model. NeurIPS 2022. Kong L, Cui J, Yuchen, Zhuang Y, Feng R, Prakash BA, Zhang C (2022)

[152] Greaselm: Graph reasoning enhanced language models. International conference on learning representations. Zhang X, Bosselut A, Yasunaga M, Ren H, Liang P, Manning CD, Leskovec J (2022)

[151] Deep bidirectional language-knowledge graph pretraining. Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems. Dec 6; 35:37309–37323. Yasunaga M, Bosselut A, Ren H, Zhang X, Manning CD, Liang PS, Leskovec J (2022)

[150] Modeling and active learning for experiments with quantitative-sequence factors. Journal of the American Statistical Association. Oct 27; 1–15. Xiao Q, Wang Y, Mandal A, Deng X. (2022)

[149] Learning to accelerate partial differential equations via latent global evolution. NeurIPS 2022. Wu T, Maruyama T, Leskovec J (2022)

[148] Scalable and memory-efficient algorithms for controlling networked epidemic processes using multiplicative weights update method. Proceedings of the Thirty-First International Joint Conference on Artificial Intelligence. Jan; 5164–5170. Sambaturu P, Minutoli M, Halappanavar M, Kalyanaraman A, Vullikanti A (2022)

[147] Einns: Epidemiologically-informed neural networks. arXiv:2202.10446. Feb 21. Rodríguez A, Cui J, Ramakrishnan N, Adhikari B, Prakash BA (2022)

[146] Data-driven real-time strategic placement of mobile vaccine distribution. medRxiv. Jun 28. Mehrab Z, Wilson ML, Chang S, Harrison G, Lewis B, Telionis A, Crow J, Kim D, Spillmann S, Peters K, Leskovec J, Marathe MV (2022)

[145] CAMul: Calibrated and accurate multi-view time-series forecasting. Proceedings of the ACM Web Conference 2022. Apr 25; 3174–3185. Kamarthi H, Kong L, Rodríguez A, Zhang C, Prakash BA (2022)

[144] Interpreting county level covid-19 infection and feature sensitivity using deep learning time series models. arXiv:2210.03258. Islam MK, Zhu D, Liu Y, Erkelens A, Daniello N, Fox J (2022)

[143] Artificial intelligence foundation for therapeutic science. Nature Chemical Biology. Oct; 18(10):1033–1036. Huang K, Fu T, Gao W, Zhao Y, Roohani Y, Leskovec J, Coley CW,Xiao C, Sun J, Zitnik M (2022)

[142] Universal healthcare as pandemic preparedness: The lives and costs that could have been saved during the covid-19 pandemic. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. Jun 21; 119(25):e2200536119. Galvani AP, Parpia AS, Pandey A, Sah P, Colón K, Friedman G, Campbell T, Kahn JG, Singer BH, Fitzpatrick MC (2022)

[141] Identifying correlates of emergent behaviors in agent-based simulation models using inverse reinforcement learning. 2022 Winter Simulation Conference (WSC). IEEE. Dadgostari F, Swarup S, Adams S, Beling P, Mortveit HS (2022)

[140] The United States COVID-19 Forecast Hub dataset. Scientific Data. Aug 1; 9(1):1–15. Cramer EY, Huang Y, Wang Y, Ray EL, Cornell M, Bracher J, Brennen A, Rivadeneira AJC, Gerding A, House K, et al. (2022)

[138] Differentiable agent-based epidemiological modeling for end-to-end learning. ICML 2022 Workshop AI for Agent-Based Modelling. Chopra A, Rodríguez A, Subramanian J, Krishnamurthy B, Prakash BA, Raskar R (2022)

[137] Effective social network-based allocation of covid-19 vaccines. Proceedings of the KDD Health Day. Aug 14. J, Hoops S, Marathe A, Mortveit H, Lewis B, Venkatramanan S, Haddadan A, Bhattacharya P, Adiga A, Vullikanti A, Srinivasan A, Wilson ML, Ehrlich G, Fenster M, Eubank S, Barrett C, Marathe M (2022)

[136] A new notion of individually fair clustering: α-equitable k-center. International Conference on Artificial Intelligence and Statistics. May 3; 6387–6408. PMLR. Chakrabarti D, Dickerson JP, Esmaeili SA, Srinivasan A, Tsepenekas L (2022)

[135] Exacerbation of covid-19 mortality by the fragmented united states healthcare system: A retrospective observational study. The Lancet Regional Health-Americas. Aug 1; 12:100264. Campbell T, Galvani AP, Friedman G, Fitzpatrick MC (2022)

[134] Microbiome analysis for wastewater surveillance during covid-19. Mbio, Aug 30; 13(4):e00591–22. Brumfield KD, Leddy M, Usmani M, Cotruvo JA, Tien CT, Dorsey S, Graubics K, Fanelli B, Zhou I, Registe N, Dadlani M, Wimalarante M, Jinasena D, Abayagunawardena R, Withanachchi C, Huq A, Jutla A, Colwell R (2022)

[133] Controlling epidemic spread using probabilistic diffusion models on networks. International Conference on Artificial Intelligence and Statistics, May 3; 11641–11654. PMLR. Babay AE, Dinitz M, Srinivasan A, Tsepenekas L, Vullikanti A (2022)

[132] Modelling healthcare associated infections with hypergraphs. epiDAMIK 5.0: The 5th International workshop on Epidemiology meets Data Mining and Knowledge discovery at KDD 2022, Anand V, Prakash BA (2022)

[131] Enhancing COVID-19 Ensemble Forecasting Model Performance Using Auxiliary Data Sources. Proceedings of the 2022 IEEE International Conference on Big Data (Best Paper). Dec 17; 1594–1603. Adiga A, Kaur G, Hurt B, Wang L, Porebski P, Venkatramanan S, Lewis B, Marathe M (2022)

[130] Back2future: Leveraging backfill dynamics for improving real-time predictions in future. arXiv:2106.04420. Kamarthi H, Rodríguez A, Prakash BA (2021)

[129] Synchronous dynamical systems on directed acyclic graphs: Complexity and algorithms. Proceedings of the Thirty-Fifth AAAI Conference on Artificial Intelligence. May 18; 11334–11342. Rosenkrantz DJ, Marathe MV, Ravi SS, Stearns RE (2021)

[128] From 5vs to 6cs: Operationalizing epidemic data management with covid-19 surveillance. Proceedings of the 2020 IEEE International Conference on Big Data (Big Data) Dec 10; 1380-1387. Peddireddy AS, Xie D, Patil P, Wilson ML, Machi D, Venkatramanan S, Klahn B, Porebski P, Bhattacharya P, Dumbre S, Raymond E, Marathe M (2020) 

[127] Is this correct? Let's check! arXiv:2211.12301. Nov 22. Ben-Eliezer O, Mikulincer D, Mossel E, Sudan M (2022)

[126] Inference in Opinion Dynamics under Social Pressure. IEEE Transactions on Automatic Control. Jul 18; 1-15. Jadbabaie A, Makur A, Mossel E, Salhab R (2022)

[125] Disease burden among Ukrainians forcibly displaced by the 2022 Russian invasion. PNAS. Feb 13; 120(8): e2215424120. Pandey A, Wells CR, Stadnytskyi V, Moghadas SM, Marathe M, Sah P, Crystal W, Meyers LA, Singer BH, Nesterova O, Galvani AP (2023)

[124] Colistin: from the shadows to a One Health approach for addressing antimicrobial resistance. International Journal of Antimicrobial Agents. Feb; 61(2): 106713. Rhouma M, Madec JY, Laxminarayan R (2023)

[123] Infection by SARS-CoV-2 with alternate frequencies of mRNA vaccine boosting. Journal of Medical Virology. Jan 5; 95(2): e28461. Townsend JP, Hassler HB, Dornburg A (2023)

[122] Using Dominating Sets to Block Contagions in Social Networks. Proceedings of the 2022 IEEE/ACM International Conference on Advances in Social Networks Analysis and Mining. Nov 10;1-4. Bao RC, Hancock M, Kuhlman CJ, Ravi SS (2022)

[121] AI Techniques for Forecasting Epidemic Dynamics: Theory and Practice. Artificial Intelligence in Covid-19. Lidströmer and Eldar (Eds), Springer Cham. Nov 10;193-228. Adiga A, Lewis B, Levin S, Marathe MV, Poor HV, Ravi SS, Rosenkrantz DJ, Stearns RE, Venkatramanan S, Vullikanti A, Wang L (2022)

[120] A Web-based System for Contagion Simulations on Networked Populations. IEEE eScience. October. Ferdousi T, Kishore A, Machi L, Machi D, Kuhlman C, Ravi SS (2022)

[119] Sociocultural determinants of global mask-wearing behavior. PNAS. Oct 3; 119(41): e2213525119. Yang L, Constantino SM, Grenfell BT, Weber EU, Levin SA, Vasconcelos VV (2022)

[118] Techniques for blocking the propagation of two simultaneous contagions over networks using a graph dynamical systems framework. Network Science. September; 10(3): 234-260. Carscadden HL, Kuhlman CJ, Marathe MV, Ravi SS, Rosenkrantz DJ (2022)

[117] Using Active Queries to Infer Symmetric Node Functions of Graph Dynamical Systems. Journal of Machine Learning Research. August; 23:1-43. Adiga A, Kuhlman CJ, Marathe MV, Ravi SS, Rosenkrantz DJ, Stearns RE (2022)

[116] Efficiently Learning the Topology and Behavior of a Networked Dynamical System Via Active Queries. Proceedings of the Thirty-Ninth International Conference on Machine Learning. July. Rosenkrantz DJ, Adiga A, Marathe MV, Qiu Z, Ravi SS, Stearns RE, Vullikanti A (2022)

[115] Understanding the coevolution of mask wearing and epidemics: A network perspective. PNAS. Jun 22; 119(26): e2123355119. Qiu Z, Espinoza B, Vasconcelos VV, Chen C, Constantino SM, Crabtree SA, Yang L, Vullikanti A, Chen J, Weibull J, Basu K, Dixit A, Levin SA, Marathe MV (2022)

[114] Vaccination-hesitancy and global warming: distinct social challenges with similar behavioural solutions. Royal Society Open Science. Jun 15; 9: 211515. Fischer I, Rubenstein DI, Levin SA (2022)

[113] The durability of natural infection and vaccine-induced immunity against future infection by SARS-CoV-2. PNAS. Jul 15;119(31):e2204336119. Townsend J, Hassler H, Sah P, Galvani AP, Dornburg A (2022)

[112] Combining Theory and Data-driven Approaches for Epidemic Forecast. Knowledge-guided Machine Learning: Accelerating Discovery using Scientific Knowledge and Data. Karpatne, Kannan, Kumar (Eds), CRC Press. Wang L, Adiga A, Chen J, Lewis B, Sadilek A, Venkatramanan S, Marathe M (2022)

[111] Data-driven Agent-based Models for Optimal Evacuation of Large Metropolitan Areas for Improved Disaster Planning. Proceedings of the 21st International Conference on Autonomous Agents and Multiagent Systems. May 9;1639-1641. Islam KA, Marathe M, Mortveit H, Swarup S, Vullikanti A (2022)

[110] Theoretical Models and Preliminary Results for Contact Tracing and Isolation. Proceedings of the 21st International Conference on Autonomous Agents and Multiagent Systems. May 9;1672-1674. Li GZ, Haddadan A, Li A, Marathe M, Srinivasan A, Vullikanti A, Zhao Z (2022)

[109] Finding Nontrivial Minimum Fixed Points in Discrete Dynamical Systems: Complexity, Special Case Algorithms and Heuristics. Proceedings of the Thirty-Sixth AAAI Conference on Artificial Intelligence. Feb 28; 9422-9430. Qiu Z, Chen C, Marathe M, Ravi SS, Rosenkrantz DJ, Stearns R, Vullikanti A (2022)

[108] Deploying Vaccine Distribution Sites for Improved Accessibility and Equity to Support Pandemic Response. arXiv:2202.04705. To appear in Proceedings of the AAMAS 2022. Feb 9. Li G, Li A, Marathe M, Srinivasan A, Tsepenekas L, Vullikanti A (2022)  Best Student Paper Award.

[107] Network Models and Simulation Analytics for Multi-scale Dynamics of Biological Invasions. Front. Big Data 5. Feb 7;796897. Adiga A, Palmer N, Baek YY, Mortveit H, Ravi SS (2022)

[106] Heterogeneous Adaptive Behavioral Responses May Increase Epidemic Burden. Scientific Reports Jul 4; 12(1):11276. Espinoza B, Swarup S, Barrett C, Marathe M (2022)

[105] Impact of weeknight and weekend curfews using mobility data: a case study of Bengaluru urban. medRxiv. Jan 28. Adiga A, Athreya S, Marathe M, Midthala J, Rathod N, Sundaresan R, Venkataramanan S, Yasodharan S (2022)

[104] Projecting the seasonality of endemic COVID-19. medRxiv. Jan 28. Townsend J, Lamb A, Hassler H, Sah P, Alvarez-Nishio A, Nguyen C, Galvani A, Dornburg A (2022)

[103] Fundamental limitations on efficiently forecasting certain epidemic measures in network models. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. Jan 25;119(4). Rosenkrantz D, Vullikanti A, Ravi SS, Stearns R, Levin S, Poor HV, Marathe M (2022)

[102] SARS-CoV-2 Testing Strategies for Outbreak Mitigation in Vaccinated Populations. medRxiv. Jan 1. Kumar C, Balasubramanian R, Ongarello S, Carmona S, Laxminarayan R (2022) [Also published in PLOS ONE. 17(7): e0271103. July 13 (2022).]

[101] A Markov Decision Process Framework for Efficient and Implementable Contact Tracing and Isolation. arXiv:2112.15547. Dec 31. Li G, Haddadan A, Li A, Marathe M, Srinivasan A, Vullikanti A, Zhao Z (2021)

[100] All-cause mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic in Chennai, India: an observational study. The Lancet Infectious Diseases. Dec 22. Lewnard J, Mahmud A, Narayan T, Wahl B, Selvavinayagam T, Laxminarayan R (2021)

[99] Earthquake Nowcasting with Deep Learning. arXiv:2201.01869. Dec 18. Fox G, Rundle J, Donnellan A, Feng B (2021)

[98] AI-Driven Agent-Based Models to Study the Role of Vaccine Acceptance in Controlling COVID-19 Spread in the US. Proceedings of the 2021 IEEE International Conference on Big Data (Big Data) Dec 15;1566-1574. Bhattacharya P, Machi D, Chen J, Hoops S, Lewis B, Mortveit H, Venkatramanan S, Wilson M, Marathe A, Porebski P, Klahn B (2021)

[97] On Efficient Design of Pilot Experiment for Generalized Linear Models. Journal of Statistical Theory and Practice. Dec 15; (4):1-21. Li Y, Deng X (2021)

[96] Vaccine breakthrough and the invasion dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 variants. medRxiv. Dec 14. Saad-Roy CM, Levin SA, Gog JR, Farrar J, Wagner CE, Metcalf CJE, Grenfell BT (2021)

[95] Link recommendation algorithms and dynamics of polarization in online social networks. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. Dec 14;118(50). Santos F, Lelkes Y, Levin S (2021)

[94] M2p2: Multimodal persuasion prediction using adaptive fusion. IEEE Transactions on Multimedia. Dec 9. Bai C, Chen H, Kumar S, Leskovec J, Subrahmanian V (2021)

[93] OGB-LSC: A Large-Scale Challenge for Machine Learning on Graphs. NeurIPS 2021. Dec 6. Hu W, Fey M, Ren H, Nakata M, Dong Y, Leskovec J (2021)

[92] Modeling Heterogeneous Hierarchies with Relation-specific Hyperbolic Cones. Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems. Dec 6;34. Bai Y, Ying Z, Ren H, Leskovec J (2021)

[91] Neural Distance Embeddings for Biological Sequences. Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems. Dec 6;34. Corso G, Ying Z, Pándy M, Veličković P, Leskovec J, Liò P (2021)

[90] Combiner: Full attention transformer with sparse computation cost. Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems. Dec 6;34. Ren H, Dai H, Dai Z, Yang M, Leskovec J, Schuurmans D, Dai B (2021)

[89] When in Doubt: Neural Non-Parametric Uncertainty Quantification for Epidemic Forecasting. Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems. Dec 6;34. Kamarthi H, Kong L, Rodríguez A, Zhang C, Prakash BA (2021)

[88] The durability of immunity against reinfection by SARS-CoV-2: a comparative evolutionary study. The Lancet Microbe. Dec 1;2(12):e666-75. Townsend J, Hassler H, Wang Z, Miura S, Singh J, Kumar S, Ruddle N, Galvani A, Dornburg A (2021)

[87] SARS-CoV-2 infection and mortality during the first epidemic wave in Madurai, south India: a prospective, active surveillance study. The Lancet Infectious Diseases. Dec 1;21(12):1665-76. Laxminarayan R, Vinay T, Kumar K, Wahl B, Lewnard J (2021)

[86] Theoretical and computational characterizations of interaction mechanisms on Facebook dynamics using a common knowledge model. Social Network Analysis and Mining. Dec;11(1):1-9. Kuhlman C, Korkmaz G, Ravi SS, Vega-Redondo F (2021)

[85] Realistic Commodity Flow Networks to Assess Vulnerability of Food Systems. Proceedings of the International Conference on Complex Networks and Their Applications. Nov 30;168-179. Springer, Cham. Adiga A, Palmer N, Sinha S, Waghalter P, Dave A, Lazarte D, Brévault T, Apolloni A, Mortveit H, Baek Y, Marathe M (2021)

[84] Versatile Uncertainty Quantification of Contrastive Behaviors for Modeling Networked Anagram Games. Proceedings of the International Conference on Complex Networks and Their Applications. Nov 30;644-656. Springer, Cham. Hu Z, Deng X, Kuhlman C (2021)

[83] A framework for simulating multiple contagions over multiple networks. Proceedings of the International Conference on Complex Networks and Their Applications. Nov 30;241-252. Springer, Cham. Kishore A, Machi L, Kuhlman C, Machi D, Ravi SS (2021)

[82] Racism is a virus: anti-Asian hate and counterspeech in social media during the COVID-19 crisis. Proceedings of the 2021 IEEE/ACM International Conference on Advances in Social Networks Analysis and Mining. Nov 8;90-94. He B, Ziems C, Soni S, Ramakrishnan N, Yang D, Kumar S (2021)

[81] Population immunity against COVID-19 in the United States. Annals of Internal Medicine. Nov;174(11):1586-91. Moghadas S, Sah P, Shoukat A, Meyers L, Galvani A (2021)

[80] SMORE: Knowledge Graph Completion and Multi-hop Reasoning in Massive Knowledge Graphs. arXiv:2110.14890. Oct 28. Ren H, Dai H, Dai B, Chen X, Zhou D, Leskovec J, Schuurmans D (2021)

[79] Actionable Insights in Urban Multivariate Time-series. Proceedings of the 30th ACM International Conference on Information & Knowledge Management. Oct 26;1774-1783. Tabassum A, Chinthavali S, Tansakul V, Prakash BA (2021)

[78] Phase transitions and the theory of early warning indicators for critical transitions. arXiv:2110.12287. Oct 23. Hagstrom G, Levin S (2021)

[77] Epidemiological and Economic Impact of COVID-19 in the US. Scientific Reports. Oct 14;11(1). Chen J, Vullikanti A, Santos J, Venkatramanan S, Hoops S, Mortveit H, Lewis B, You W, Eubank S, Marathe M, Barrett C (2021)

[76] Asymptomatic individuals can increase the final epidemic size under adaptive human behavior. Scientific Reports. Oct 5;11(1). Espinoza B, Marathe M, Swarup S, Thakur M (2021)

[75] Postmortem memory of public figures in news and social media. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. Sep 21;118(38). West R, Leskovec J, Potts C (2021)

[74] Spatiotemporal Pattern Mining for Nowcasting Extreme Earthquakes in Southern California. Proceedings of the IEEE 17th International Conference on eScience. Sep 20. Feng B, Fox G (2021)

[73] Importance of non-pharmaceutical interventions in the COVID-19 vaccination era: A case study of the Seychelles. Journal of Global Health. Sep 18;11:03104. Vilches T, Sah P, Abdollahi E, Moghadas S, Galvani A (2021)

[72] Privacy-first health research with federated learning. NPJ Digital Medicine. Sep 7;4(1):1-8. Sadilek A, Liu L, Nguyen D, Kamruzzaman M, Serghiou S, Rader B, Ingerman A, Mellem S, Kairouz P, Nsoesie E, MacFarlane J (2021)

[71] HySec-Flow: Privacy-Preserving Genomic Computing with SGX-based Big-Data Analytics Framework. Proceedings of the 2021 IEEE 14th International Conference on Cloud Computing (CLOUD). Sep 5; 733-743. Widanage C, Liu W, Li J, Chen H, Wang X, Tang H, Fox J (2021)

[70] HPTMT: Operator-Based Architecture for Scalable High-Performance Data-Intensive Frameworks. Proceedings of the 2021 IEEE 14th International Conference on Cloud Computing (CLOUD). Sep 5;228-239. Kamburugamuve S, Widanage C, Perera N, Abeykoon V, Uyar A, Kanewala T, Von Laszewski G, Fox G (2021)

[69] Asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection: A systematic review and meta-analysis. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. Aug 24;118(34). Sah P, Fitzpatrick M, Zimmer C, Abdollahi E, Juden-Kelly L, Moghadas S, Singer B, Galvani A (2021)

[68] Vaccine nationalism and the dynamics and control of SARS-CoV-2. Science. Aug 17; 373(6562): eabj7364. Wagner CE, Saad-Roy CM, Morris SE, Baker RE, Mina MJ, Farrar J, Holmes EC, Pybus OG, Graham AL, Emanuel EJ, Levin SA, Metcalf CJE, Grenfell BT (2021)

[67] Can the USA return to pre-COVID-19 normal by July 4? The Lancet Infectious Diseases. Aug 1;21(8):1073-4. Moghadas S, Sah P, Vilches T, Galvani A (2021)

[66] Opportunities and challenges in developing COVID-19 simulation models: Lessons from six funded projects. Proceedings of the 2021 Annual Modeling and Simulation Conference (ANNSIM). Society for Modeling & Simulation International. July 19. Giabbanelli P, Badham J, Castellani B, Kavak H, Mago V, Negahba A, Swarup S (2021)

[65] Informing University COVID-19 Decisions Using Simple Compartmental Models. medRxiv. July 6. Hurt B, Adiga A, Marathe M, Barrett C (2021)

[64] Challenges facing COVID-19 vaccination in India: Lessons from the initial vaccine rollout. Journal of Global Health. Jun 26;11:03083. Pandey A, Sah P, Moghadas S, Mandal S, Banerjee S, Hotez P, Galvani A (2021)

[63] Evolution of an asymptomatic first stage of infection in a heterogeneous population. Journal of the Royal Society Interface. Jun 16;18(179):20210175. Saad-Roy C, Grenfell B, Levin S, van den Driessche P, Wingreen N (2021)

[62] Evaluating the Utility of High-Resolution Proximity Metrics in Predicting the Spread of COVID-19. medRxiv. Jun 10. Mehrab Z, Adiga A, Marathe M, Venkatramanan S, Swarup S (2021). [Also published in ACM Trans. Spatial Algorithms Syst. 8(4): 26. Nov (2022).]

[61] Leveraging a multiple-strain model with mutations in analyzing the spread of COVID-19. ICASSP 2021-2021 IEEE International Conference on Acoustics, Speech and Signal Processing. Jun 6;8163-8167. Sridhar A, Yağan O, Eletreby R, Levin S, Plotkin J, Poor HV (2021)

[60] Strategies to Mitigate COVID-19 Resurgence Assuming Immunity Waning: A Study for Karnataka, India. medRxiv. May 29. Adiga A, Athreya S, Lewis B, Marathe M, Rathod N, Sundaresan R, Swarup S, Venkatramanan S, Yasodharan S (2021)

[59] Scalable epidemiological workflows to support covid-19 planning and response. Proceedings of the IEEE International Parallel and Distributed Processing Symposium. May 17;639-650). Machi D, Bhattacharya P, Hoops S, Chen J, Mortveit H, Venkatramanan S, Lewis B, Wilson M, Fadikar A, Maiden T, Barrett C (2021)

[58] Quantifying the potential for dominant spread of SARS-CoV-2 variant B. 1.351 in the United States. medRxiv. May 12. Sah P, Vilches T, Shoukat A, Pandey A, Fitzpatrick M, Moghadas S, Galvani A (2021)

[57] Social Network Interventions to Prevent Reciprocity-driven Polarization. Proceedings of the 20th International Conference on Autonomous Agents and MultiAgent Systems. May 3;1643-1645. Santos F, Santos F, Pacheco J, Levin S (2021)

[56] Cohorting to isolate asymptomatic spreaders: An agent-based simulation study on the Mumbai Suburban Railway. Proceedings of the 20th International Conference on Autonomous Agents and MultiAgent Systems. May 3;1680-1682. Talekar A, Shriram S, Vaidhiyan N, Aggarwal G, Chen J, Venkatramanan S, Wang L, Adiga A, Sadilek A, Tendulkar A, Marathe M (2021)

[55] Analysis of the potential impact of durability, timing, and transmission blocking of COVID-19 vaccine on morbidity and mortality. EClinicalMedicine. May 1;35:100863. Haghpanah F, Lin G, Levin S, Klein E (2021)

[54] Accelerated vaccine rollout is imperative to mitigate highly transmissible COVID-19 variants. EClinicalMedicine. May 1;35:100865. Sah P, Vilches T, Moghadas S, Fitzpatrick M, Singer B, Hotez P, Galvani A (2021)

[53] Simulated identification of silent COVID-19 infections among children and estimated future infection rates with vaccination. JAMA Network Open. Apr 23;4(4):e217097. Moghadas S, Fitzpatrick M, Shoukat A, Zhang K, Galvani A (2021)

[52] Evaluation of COVID-19 vaccination strategies with a delayed second dose. PLoS Biology. Apr 21;19(4):e3001211. Moghadas S, Vilches T, Zhang K, Nourbakhsh S, Sah P, Fitzpatrick M, Galvani A (2021)

[51] Optimal, near-optimal, and robust epidemic control. Communication Physics. Apr 20;4(78). Morris D, Rossine F, Plotkin J, Levin S (2021)

[50] Comparison of Regression Approaches for Analyzing Survival Data in the Presence of Competing Risks. Letters in Biomathematics. Apr 15;8(1):29-47. Ghosh S, Samanta G, Mubayi A (2021)

[49] Timing is everything: the relationship between COVID outcomes and the date at which mask mandates are relaxed. medRxiv. Apr 6. Shoukat A, Galvani A, Fitzpatrick M (2021)

[48] Simulated identification of silent COVID-19 infections among children and estimated future infection rates with vaccination. JAMA Network Open. Apr 1;4(4):e217097-. Moghadas S, Fitzpatrick M, Shoukat A, Zhang K, Galvani A (2021)

[47] Modeling and Analysis of the Spread of COVID-19 Under a Multiple-Strain Model With Mutations. Harvard Data Science Review, Special Issue 1: COVID-19: Unprecedented Challenges and Chances. Apr 23. Yagan O, Sridhar A, Eletreby R, Levin S, Plotkin JB, Poor HV (2021)

[46] Epidemiological and evolutionary considerations of SARS-CoV-2 vaccine dosing regimes. Science. Apr 23;372(6540):363-70. Saad-Roy C, Morris S, Metcalf C, Mina M, Baker R, Farrar J, Holmes E, Pybus O, Graham A, Levin S, Grenfell B (2021)

[45] AICov: An Integrative Deep Learning Framework for COVID-19 Forecasting with Population Covariates. Journal of Data Science. Apr;19(2):293-313. Fox G, von Laszewski G, Wang F, Pyne S (2021)

[44] WiFi mobility models for COVID-19 enable less burdensome and more localized interventions for university campuses. medRxiv. Mar 24. Swain V, Xie J, Madan M, Sargolzaei S, Cai J, De Choudhury M, Abowd G, Steimle L, Prakash BA.

[43] Racial disparities in COVID-19 mortality across Michigan, United States. EClinicalMedicine. Mar 1;33:100761. Parpia A, Martinez I, El-Sayed A, Wells C, Myers L, Duncan J, Collins J, Fitzpatrick M, Galvani A, Pandey A (2021)

[42] Prioritizing allocation of COVID-19 vaccines based on social contacts increases vaccination effectiveness. medRxiv. Feb 15. Chen J, Hoops S, Marathe A, Mortveit H, Lewis B, Venkatramanan S, Haddadan A, Bhattacharya P, Adiga A, Vullikanti A, Srinivasan A, Wilson M, Ehrlich G, Fenster M, Eubank S, Barrett C, Marathe M (2021)

[41] Persistence of anti-vaccine sentiment in social networks through strategic interactions. Proceedings of the Thirty-Fifth AAAI Conference on Artificial IntelligenceFeb 9. Haque ASM, Thakur M, Bielskas M, Marathe A, Vullikanti A (2021)

[40] DeepCOVID: An Operational Deep Learning-driven Framework for Explainable Real-time COVID-19 Forecasting. Proceedings of the Thirty-Fifth AAAI Conference on Artificial IntelligenceFeb 9. Rodríguez A, Tabassum A, Cui J, Xie J, Ho J, Agarwal P, Adhikari B, Prakash BA (2021)

[39] Steering a Historical Disease Forecasting Model Under a Pandemic: Case of Flu and COVID-19. Proceedings of the Thirty-Fifth AAAI Conference on Artificial IntelligenceFeb 9. Rodriguez A, Muralidhar N, Adhikari B, Tabassum A, Ramakrishnan N, Prakash BA (2021)

[38] Evaluation of individual and ensemble probabilistic forecasts of COVID-19 mortality in the US. medRxiv. Feb 5. Cramer EY, et al (2021)

[37] Trajectory of individual immunity and vaccination required for SARS-CoV-2 community immunity: a conceptual investigation. Journal of the Royal Society Interface. Feb 3;18(175):20200683. Saad-Roy C, Levin S, Metcalf C, Grenfell B (2021)

[36] Supporting COVID-19 policy response with large-scale mobility-based modeling. Proceedings of the 27th ACM SIGKDD Conference on Knowledge Discovery and Data Mining (KDD), Applied Data Science Track. Submitted. Chang S, Wilson M, Lewis B, Mehrab Z, Dudakiya K, Pierson E, Koh P, Gerardin J, Redbird B, Grusky D, Marathe M, Leskovec J (2021)

[35] All Models are Useful: Bayesian Ensembling for Robust High Resolution COVID-19 Forecasting. Proceedings of the 27th ACM SIGKDD Conference on Knowledge Discovery and Data Mining (KDD), Applied Data Science Track. Adiga A, Wang L, Hurt B, Peddireddy A, Porebski P, Venkatramanan S, Lewis B, Marathe M (2021)

[34] The impact of vaccination on coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreaks in the United States. Clinical Infectious Diseases. Jan 30. Moghadas S, Vilches T, Zhang K, Wells C, Shoukat A, Singer B, Meyers L, Neuzil K, Langley J, Fitzpatrick M, Galvani A (2021)

[33] Superinfection and the evolution of an initial asymptomatic stage. Royal Society Open Science. Jan 27;8(1):202212. Saad-Roy C, Grenfell B, Levin S, Pellis L, Stage H, van den Driessche P, Wingreen N (2021)

[32] Cross-country evidence on the association between contact tracing and COVID-19 case fatality rates. Scientific Reports. Jan 25;11(1):1-6. Yalaman A, Basbug G, Elgin C, Galvani A (2021)

[31] Optimal COVID-19 quarantine and testing strategies. Nature Communications. Jan 7;12(1):1-9. Wells C, Townsend J, Pandey A, Moghadas S, Krieger G, Singer B, McDonald R, Fitzpatrick M, Galvani A (2021)

[30] Economic and behavioral influencers of vaccination and antimicrobial use. Frontiers in Public Health. Dec 21;8: 614113. Wagner C, Prentice J, Saad-Roy C, Yang L, Grenfell B, Levin S, Laxminarayan R (2020)

[29] Using Mobility Data to Understand and Forecast COVID19 Dynamics. medRxiv. Dec 15. Wang L, Ben X, Adiga A, Sadilek A, Tendulkar A, Venkatramanan S, Vullikanti A, Aggarwal G, Talekar A, Chen J, Lewis B, Swarup S, Kapoor A, Tambe M, Marathe M (2020)

[28] Mapping network states using connectivity queries. Proceedings of IEEE International Conference on Big Data. Dec 10. Rodríguez A, Adhikari B, González A, Nicholson C, Vullikanti A, Prakash BA (2020)

[27] Examining Deep Learning Models with Multiple Data Sources for COVID-19 Forecasting. Proceedings of IEEE International Conference on Big Data. Dec 10;3846-3855. Wang L, Adiga A, Venkatramanan S, Chen J, Lewis B, Marathe M (2020)

[26] Open Graph Benchmark: Datasets for Machine Learning on Graphs. NeurIPS 2020. Dec 6;22118-22133. Hu W, Fey M, Zitnik M, Dong Y, Ren H, Liu B, Catasta M, Leskovec J (2020)

[25] Evolution of similar configurations in graph dynamical systems. International Conference on Complex Networks and Their Applications. Dec 1;544-555. Priest J, Marathe M, Ravi SS, Rosenkrantz D, Stearns R (2020)

[24] Blocking the Propagation of Two Simultaneous Contagions over Networks. International Conference on Complex Networks and Their Applications. Dec 1;455-468. Carscadden H, Kuhlman C, Marathe M, Ravi SS, Rosenkrantz D (2020)

[23] High resolution proximity statistics as early warning for US universities reopening during COVID-19. medRxivMehrab Z, Ranga A, Sarkar D, Venkatramanan S, Baek Y, Swarup S, Marathe M (2020)

[22] Data-driven modeling for different stages of pandemic response. Journal of the Indian Institute of Science. Nov 16;100:901-915. Adiga A, Chen J, Marathe M, Mortveit H, Venkatramanan S, Vullikanti A (2020)

[21] Immune life history, vaccination, and the dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 over the next 5 years. Science. Nov 13;370(6518):811-8. Saad-Roy C, Wagner C, Baker R, Morris S, Farrar J, Graham A, Levin S, Mina M, Metcalf C, Grenfell B (2020)

[20] Wisdom of the Ensemble: Improving Consistency of Deep Learning Models. Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems. Dec 6;33:19750-61. Wang L, Ghosh D, Gonzalez Diaz M, Farahat A, Alam M, Gupta C, Chen J, Marathe M (2020)

[19] Mobility network models of COVID-19 explain inequities and inform reopening. Nature. Nov 10;1-6. Chang S, Pierson E, Koh P, Gerardin J, Redbird B, Grusky D, Leskovec J (2020)

[18] PREEMPT: Scalable Epidemic Interventions Using Sub-Modular Optimization on Multi-GPU Systems. Proceedings of SC20: International Conference for High Performance Computing, Networking, Storage, and Analysis (IEEE). Nov 9;765-779. Minutoli M, Sambaturu P, Halappanavar M, Tumeo A, Kalyanaraman A, Vullikanti A (2020)

[17] Epidemiology and transmission dynamics of COVID-19 in two Indian states. Science. Nov 6;370(6517):691-697. Laxminarayan R, Wahl B, Reddy Dudala S, Gopal K, Mohan C, Neelima S, Jawahar Reddy K, Radhakrishnan J, Lewnard J (2020)

[16] Medical costs of keeping the US economy open during COVID-19. Scientific Reports. Oct 28;10(1):1-0. Chen J, Vullikanti A, Hoops S, Mortveit H, Lewis B, Venkatramanan S, You W, Eubank S, Marathe M, Barrett C, Marathe A (2020)

[15] Mathematical Models for COVID-19 Pandemic: A Comparative Analysis. Journal of the Indian Institute of Science. Oct 30;100:793-807. Adiga A, Dubhashi D, Lewis B, Marathe M, Venkatramanan S, Vullikanti A (2020)

[14] Commentary on Ferguson, et al, "Impact of Non-pharmaceutical Interventions (NPIs) to Reduce COVID-19 Mortality and Healthcare Demand. Bulletin of Mathematical Biology 82Oct 7. Eubank S, Eckstrand I, Lewis B, Venkatramanan S, Marathe M, Barrett C (2020)

[13] Broadcasting on two-dimensional regular grids. arXiv:2010.01390. Oct 3. Makur A, Mossel E, Polyanskiy Y (2020)

[12] Distance Encoding--Design Provably More Powerful GNNs for Structural Representation Learning. arXiv:2009.00142. Aug 31. Li P, Wang Y, Wang H, Leskovec J (2020)

[11] OCEAN: Online Task Inference for Compositional Tasks with Context Adaptation. Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence. Aug 27;1378-1387. PMLR. Ren H, Zhu Y, Leskovec J, Anandkumar A, Garg A (2020)

[10] Interplay of global multi-scale human mobility, social distancing, government interventions, and COVID-19 dynamics. medRxiv. Aug 24. Adiga A, Wang L, Sadilek A, Tendulkar A, Venkatramanan S, Vullikanti A, Aggarwal G, Talekar A, Ben X, Chen J, Lewis B, Swarup S, Tambe M, Marathe M (2020)

[9] Incorporating Expert Guidance in Epidemic Forecasting. CM SIGKDD Epidemiology meets Data Mining and Knowledge Workshop. Aug 24. Rodríguez A, Adhikari B, Ramakrishnan N, Prakash BA (2020).

[8] Ensemble Forecasts of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) in the US. medRxivAug 22. Ray E, et al (2020)

[7] Approximation Algorithms for Radius-Based, Two-Stage Stochastic Clustering Problems with Budget Constraints. arXiv:2008.03325. Aug 7. Brubach B, Grammel N, Harris D, Srinivasan A, Tsepenekas L, Vullikanti A (2020)

[6] Cut-n-Reveal: Time Series Segmentations with Explanations. ACM Transactions on Intelligent Systems and Technology (TIST). Jul 28;11(5):1-26. Muralidhar N, Tabassum A, Chen L, Chinthavali S, Ramakrishnan N, Prakash BA (2020)

[5] The implications of silent transmission for the control of COVID-19 outbreaks. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. Jul 28;117(30):17513-17515. Moghadas S, Fitzpatrick M, Sah P, Pandey A, Shoukat A, Singer B, Galvani A (2020)

[4] Implications of localized charge for human influenza A H1N1 hemagglutinin evolution: Insights from deep mutational scans. PLoS Computational Biology. Jun 25;16(6):e1007892. Saad-Roy C, Arinaminpathy N, Wingreen N, Levin S, Akey J, Grenfell B (2020)

[3] Networked epidemiology for COVID-19. SIAM News. Jun 1Chen J, Eubank S, Levin S, Mortveit H, Venkataramanan S, Vullikanti A, Marathe M (2020)

[2] Staggered Release Policies for COVID-19 Control: Costs and Benefits of Sequentially Relaxing Restrictions by Age. arXiv. May 12. Zhao H, Feng Z, Castillo-Chavez C, Levin S (2020)

[1] Explaining the "bomb-like" dynamics of COVID-19 with modeling and implications for policy. medRxivLin G, Strauss A, Pinz M, Martinez D, Tseng K, Schueller E, Gatalo O, Yang Y, Levin S, Klein E (2020)


Combinatorial Statistics and the Sciences. ICM 2022. Mossel E (Jul 2022)

Probabilistic Methods in Computer Science, Data Science, and Public Health. Boeing Distinguished Colloquium. Srinivasan A (Apr 2022)

Climate and Health: Conquering Water-Borne Diseases in the 21st Century. ONWARD Webinar Series on Water-Related Diseases, Their Links To Environmental Conditions, Water Quality, Monitoring Methods, and Solutions, AIR Centre. Colwell R (Mar 2022)

Just Because You Are A Pawn You Don't Have To Lose The Game. UMD CMNS DEI Lecture. Colwell R (Mar 2022)

Rethinking Robustness: From Classification to Contextual Bandits. USC Department of Mathematics Probability and Statistics Seminar. Moitra A (Oct 2021)

Real-time contagion science in the 21st century: The role of data and computing. Science Gallery Bengaluru: Contagion. Marathe M (Jun 2021)

AI/ML for Pandemic Response. PathCheck Global Health Innovators Talk Series. Prakash BA and Rodriguez A (Jun 2021)

The durability of immunity following infection by SARS-CoV-2. COVID-19 Research Webinar, Northeast Big Data Innovation Hub, Columbia University Data Science Initiative. Townsend J (Jun 2021)

Vaccine prioritization: The role of AI and computing in pandemic planning and response. Chalmers AI Research Centre Talks. Marathe M (Mar 2021)

Fairness in AI and in Algorithms. University of Maryland Fairness in AI Seminar Series. Srinivasan A (Mar 2021)

COVID-19 in the US. COVID-19: Policymaking in the Throes of a Global Crisis Seminar Series, Columbia SIPA. Galvani A (Nov 2020)

Real-time pandemic planning and response: Experiences from the COVID-19 pandemic. Harvard CRCS's AI for Social Impact Seminar Series. Marathe M (Oct 2020)

Predicting and Analyzing Pandemics. Technology, Culture, and Society in the Age of COVID-19 Continuing Studies Course, Rice University. Marathe M (Oct 2020)

A Lab of One's Own: One Woman's Personal Journey Through Sexism in Science. Harvard Science Book Talk. Colwell R (Sep 2020)

Real-Time Computational Science for COVID-19 Pandemic Planning and Response. ACM BCB 2020. Marathe M (Sep 2020)

Projecting hospital utilization and assessing implications of silent transmission during the COVID-19 outbreak in the United States. COVID-19 Consortium Colloquium Speaker Series, UT Austin. Galvani A and Pandey A (Sep 2020)

Graph Structure of Neural Networks: Good Neural Networks Are Alike. MLG20. Leskovec J (Aug 2020)

Towards real-time computational epidemiology. Workshop on Knowledge Guided Machine Learning (KGML). Marathe M (Aug 2020)

Graph Neural Networks for Reasoning over Multimodal Content. ML4MD at ICML2020. Leskovec J (Jul 2020)

Representation Learning for Logical Reasoning in Knowledge Graphs. Automated Knowledge Base Construction. Leskovec J (Jun 2020)

Robustness meets Algorithms. Trustworthy and Robust AI Collaboration (TRAC) Workshop. Moitra A (Jun 2020)

Using Machine Learning to Respond to Covid-19. Machine Learning Center at Georgia Tech. Kumar S, Prakash BA, De Choudhury M, Serban N, and Miller K (Jun 2020)

Uncertainty & Precision in Math Modeling to Mitigate the Threat of COVID-19. Mathematical Models on Epidemiology in Connection with COVID-19, Dept of Mathematics, Vellore Institute of Technology, TN, India. Mubayi A (Jun 2020)

Underreporting, Preparedness, and Silent Typhoid Marys: A Cautionary Tale of Modeling COVID Dynamics. COVID-19 Modeling Webinar Series, Indian Institute of Public Health, Gandhinagar, India. Mubayi A (Jun 2020)

Lessons from Evolution for Anticipating and Coping with Extreme Events. "Don’t Waste the Covid-19 Crisis: Reflections on Resilience and the Commons Revealed by Covid-19" Webinar Series, Center for Behavior, Institutions and the Environment (CBIE), the International Association for Study of the Commons (IASC), and the Resilience Alliance. Levin S (May 2020)

Responding to the COVID-19 Pandemic: Role of Computing and Data Science. IIT Madras Leadership Lecture Series. Marathe M (May 2020)

Tackling the COVID-19 Crisis. UVA Research virtual panel. Marathe M (May 2020)

Computational and Statistical Tools to Control a Pandemic. Theoretically Speaking Series, Simons Institute for the Theory of Computing. Team members on the virtual panel: Moitra A, Marathe M, Vullikanti A (May 2020)

Computational Science for Real-time COVID-19 Response. ACM India Industry Webinar. Marathe M (Apr 2020)

Recommendations for Improving Science During Crisis. AAAS Annual Meeting. Colwell R (Feb 2020)



Chen J, Lewis B, and Venkatramanan S. 2022 UVA Provost's Office Award for Collaborative Excellence in Public Service. For their service to the University, the Commonwealth of Virginia, and federal authorities during the pandemic, which continues today. (2022)

Levin SA. 2022 AMS Fellow. For contributions to the mathematics of ecology, evolution, and epidemiology. (2022)

Li G, Li A, Marathe M, Srinivasan A, Tsepenekas L and Vullikanti AK. AAMAS 2022. Best Student Paper. Deploying Vaccine Distribution Sites for Improved Accessibility and Equity to Support Pandemic Response. May (2022)

Bhattacharya P, Chen J, Hoops S, Machi D, Lewis B, Venkatramanan S, Wilson ML, Klahn B, Adiga A, Hurt B, Outten J, Adiga A, Warren A, Baek H, Porebski P, Marathe A, Xie D, Swarup S, Vullikanti A, Mortveit H, Eubank S, Barrett CL and Marathe M.  2021 ACM Gordon Bell Special Prize for High Performance Computing-Based COVID-19 Research FinalistData-Driven Scalable Pipeline Using National Agent-Based Models for Real-Time Pandemic Response and Decision Support. Nov (2021)

Marathe M, Athreya S, Barrett C, Eubank S, Levin S, Ollivere B, Poor HV, Reidys C, Sunaresan R, Valdez A, Waterman M. 2021 Trinity Challenge Finalist. For better protecting the world against health emergencies using data-driven research and analytics.  Jun (2021)

Levin SA. 14th Edition BBVA Frontiers of Knowledge Award in Ecology and Conservation Biology. For leading the development of the theoretical and mathematical basis for spatial ecology, making it possible to understand the mechanisms that maintain biodiversity by taking into account the complex interactions between individuals and the environment. And applying this theory to the design of nature preserves and more sustainable cities. (2021)

Mossel E. 2021 ACM Fellow. For contributions to theoretical computer science and inference. (2021)

Bernstein M. 2021 Patrick J. McGovern Tech for Humanity Changemaker. For contributions to reducing bias in technology by developing a jury-based approach to artificial intelligence and machine learning that considers diverse perspectives. (2021)

Vullikanti A. 2020 ACM Distinguished Members for Contributions that Propel the Digital Age. For Outstanding Scientific Contributions to Computing. (2020)

Policy Impact

Team members have played a key role in supporting local, state, and national public health policymakers. While the operational effort is funded by multiple agencies (including the CDC, DTRA, and VDH), the Expeditions project has focused largely on technology development. While we had planned for such participation as part of our project, COVID-19 provided us with an unprecedented opportunity. Multiple tools and web apps have been developed for COVID-19 surveillance. The UVA team continued to serve as the lead analytical group supporting the Virginia Department of Health (VDH), the Virginia Department of Emergency Management, various local and state hospitals, including the University of Virginia School of Medicine and Virginia Commonwealth University, as well as the DoD and CDC. This work has resulted in over 92 slide decks and weekly briefs, numerous updates to stakeholders, over 1.3 million views to the main projection dashboard, and citations in over 360 local media reports. These analyses assist local health officials, school administrators, businesses, and individuals in risk assessment and various kinds of policy decisions.